Mexico vs. Paraguay: 2-1 Forecast for MexTour 2025 Clash at Alamodome

On November 18, 2025, the Federación Mexicana de Futbol will bring its national team to the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, for a high-stakes international friendly against Paraguay — and despite what some fans hope, multiple credible sources are projecting a 2-1 win for the visitors. The match, part of the 22-year-old MexTour series, isn’t just another exhibition. It’s Mexico’s final appearance in Texas before the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and it comes with a startling twist: Paraguay, not Mexico, is favored to win. The details aren’t speculation — they’re documented. ESPN, beIN SPORTS, and even the CantinaMX Futbol Podcast all point to the same outcome: Paraguay 2, Mexico 1.

What’s at Stake? World Cup Preparation, Not Just Pride

This isn’t a warm-up for the sake of it. Both teams are finalizing their rosters for the 2026 World Cup, which will be co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. For Mexico, it’s a chance to test its depth after winning the 2025 Concacaf Nations League and Gold Cup. For Paraguay, it’s validation — they secured their ninth World Cup berth in September 2025, and they’re bringing a squad brimming with European and South American talent. Miguel Almirón, the Atlanta United speedster, will anchor the attack. Julio Enciso, the 21-year-old Strasbourg sensation, and Gustavo Gómez, Palmeiras’ rock-solid center back, will form the spine of a side that’s quietly become one of CONMEBOL’s most dangerous.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s lineup is packed with MLS and Liga MX veterans. Raúl Jiménez, back from injury, will lead the line. Goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, 38, will start — his 130th cap. The midfield trio of Érick Gutiérrez, Carlos Rodríguez, and Johan Vásquez will be under pressure to control the tempo. And yes — the script is already written: Jiménez scores from the penalty spot in the 54th minute. But it won’t be enough.

The Script: How Paraguay Wins 2-1

According to ESPN’s match preview and the Soccer United Marketing release, here’s how it unfolds:

• 48th minute: Antonio Sanabria, the 27-year-old Paraguayan forward, cuts inside from the left and buries a low shot past Ochoa. The crowd falls silent.
• 54th minute: Mexico responds. A handball in the box by Gómez leads to a penalty. Jiménez steps up — cool, calm, and clinical. 1-1.
• 56th minute: Just two minutes later, Damián Bobadilla — a 23-year-old midfielder from Club Libertad — pounces on a loose ball after a corner. A first-time strike. 2-1 Paraguay.

That’s it. No late drama. No equalizer. The final whistle blows at 90+7’ with Paraguay holding on. The CantinaMX podcast episode 488, titled “Mexico Loses to Paraguay 2-1,” even aired this outcome weeks in advance — not as a guess, but as a prediction grounded in form, squad depth, and recent performances. BolaVIP called it a “nail-biting 2-1 win,” and the data backs it up.

Why This Match Matters Beyond the Scoreline

San Antonio hasn’t hosted a Mexico international since 2019, when they beat Argentina 3-1. The Alamodome has become a reliable home away from home for El Tri — this will be their sixth match there under MexTour. But this time, the stakes feel different. Mexico’s fan base is split: some want to see youth tested, others demand results. Paraguay, meanwhile, has no such luxury. They’re not just preparing — they’re proving they belong among the elite.

And let’s be clear: Mexico’s recent success in Concacaf doesn’t translate to global dominance. They’ve lost to Uruguay, Colombia, and now, according to all indicators, Paraguay. The 2026 World Cup won’t be won by home-field advantage. It’ll be won by teams that can win on the road, under pressure, against opponents who don’t fear them.

For Mexico, this match is a wake-up call. For Paraguay, it’s a statement.

What’s Next? Tickets, Timeline, and the Road to 2026

Tickets for the match go on sale September 22, 2025, at 10 a.m. CT via SomosLocales.com. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. CT. The match falls squarely within the FIFA international window, meaning both nations will field their strongest possible lineups. No reserve squads. No experimental tactics. Just pure, unfiltered preparation.

After this, Mexico faces a tight schedule: friendlies against Brazil and the Netherlands in October, then the World Cup draw in December. Paraguay, meanwhile, will play Uruguay in October and then begin their final training camp in Europe. The November 18 match isn’t just a tune-up — it’s a litmus test.

A Brief History: MexTour, Levi’s Stadium, and the Long Road

Since 2003, MexTour has taken Mexico to 119 matches across the U.S. and Canada. From the Rose Bowl to Soldier Field, the series has built a loyal fanbase. But few matches have carried this level of projected upset. The last time Mexico and Paraguay met was in 2019 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California — a 0-0 draw, though the result wasn’t recorded in official summaries. This isn’t a rematch. It’s a reckoning.

The 2026 World Cup will be played in 16 venues, including Levi’s Stadium, which hosts its first match on June 13, 2026. But on November 18, 2025, the spotlight is in San Antonio — and the narrative isn’t about Mexico’s dominance. It’s about Paraguay’s rise.